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The two weight-of- evidence assessments contributed to the third assessment, a conclusion about the causal relationship. Weight of Epidemiologic Evidence Each peer-reviewed epidemiologic study was evaluated for its methodo- logic limitations. A specifc study involving multiple outcomes or vaccines could have fewer limitations for the analysis of some vaccines or some outcomes than for others. Small clini- cal studies can be well conducted but the low number of subjects may limit the ability to detect most adverse events. Adverse Effects of Vaccines: Evidence and Causality 11 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. The committee was rigorous in assess- ing the strengths and weaknesses of each epidemiologic study. Some studies reviewed are likely the most reasonably methodologically sound given the nature of the exposure and the outcomes, even if the studies have some residual limitation due to the challenges that often attend such research. Summary paragraphs describe the epidemiologic evidence (as well as the mechanistic evidence and in some circumstances the causality conclusion) more fully than can be captured with the formal and consistent wording of the assessments used in this report. The committee used a summary classifcation scheme that incorporates both the quality and quantity of the individual epidemiologic studies and the consistency of the group of studies in terms of direction of effect. Integral to the assessment is the confdence the committee has that the true effect lies close to the average overall effect estimate for the body of evidence. Weight of Mechanistic Evidence the committee assessed the mechanisms by which the vaccine could cause a specifc adverse event by identifying and evaluating clinical and biological evidence. First, the committee searched for evidence in the peer- reviewed literature that a vaccine was or may be a cause of an adverse event in one or more persons (from case reports or clinical studies) in a reasonable time period after the vaccination. Chapter 3 contains a discussion of the major mechanisms the committee invokes as possible ex- planations of how a given adverse event can occur after vaccination. The committee identifed many case reports in the literature describing adverse events following vaccination. For the purposes of this report, case report refers to a description of an individual patient; one publication could describe multiple case reports. The committee evaluated each case report using a well-established set of criteria called attribution elements for case evaluation (Miller et al. At a minimum, for a case to factor into the weight-of-evidence assessment, it had to include specifc mention of the vaccine administered, evidence of a clinician-diagnosed health outcome, and a specifed and reasonable time interval. Case descriptions that did not have the three basic elements described above were not considered in the mechanistic weight-of-evidence assessments.

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Similarly, the BoD was partly based on assumptions and international estimates, as national data were not available. For example, when calculating numbers of cases, it is not usually possible to know whether the reduction in life ex- pectancy in the population is because some people lose several years or because many people lose a smaller number of years. Similarly, it is not clear how to calculate the BoD for diseases from which people would have fallen ill or died had they not died from another disease. In addition, a reduction in exposure leads to a reduction in the BoD and thus an increase in the burden of some other diseases due to population ag- ing. The changes are therefore dynamic, and the various diseases interact with each other. Simplifications and assumptions about the behaviour of diseases are thus necessary. Therefore, the BoD should be considered a statistical indicator of the magnitude of the various factors. Calculated case numbers do not mean that a given exposure would kill an estimated number of people each year. Although we estimate the causal rela- tionships considered to be real, due to the nature of the BoD we mean that the burden is attributable to a particular exposure, even when we speak of causation, because we do not know the true number of cases. Depending on the factor, the project utilized data that is as close as pos- sible to these years, for example, food consumption data for 2017 and exposure esti- mates based on 2012 food consumption data. Thus, the BoD caused by nutritional factors may be either overestimated or underestimated compared to the calculation of BoD in accordance with Finnish nutrition guidelines. Other assumptions in the burden of biological hazard calculations are thus based on international estimates, which may lead to either overestimation or underestimation. Biological factors are associated with underreporting, as only cases where a patient was referred to a doctor and was tested and the test results were reported are in- cluded in the register. For example, 94% of norovirus cases are internationally estimated to be unregistered (Tam et al. The BoD for other chemical food hazards was determined based on national estimates. For ex- ample, there was a lack of national data about underreporting related to registers, which may differ significantly from international estimates due to different societal structures and practices. Therefore, it would be necessary to clarify the proportion of patients entering the registers in relation to all cases of the disease in question in Fin- land. More accurate calculations would require comprehensive information on the preva- lence and concentration of different health-related factors for different foods and cate- gories of food at critical points in the food chain. The current data is typically based on conclusions based on very small number of measurements.

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A physician should be consulted for cancer, melanoma A skin cancer that begins in growths or sores on the penis, any unusual dis- cells called melanocytes, which normally grow charge from the penis, or bleeding. If cancer is found, more tests change in size, shape, or color of a mole can be a are done to find out whether the cancer has spread sign of melanoma. If it is not detected early, however, it options include surgery, radiation therapy, may spread to other areas of the body, and that can chemotherapy, and biological therapy. Diagnosis is confirmed with a biopsy of of recovery and choice of treatment depend on the the abnormal skin. Diagnosis of prostate cancer is established when cancer cells are cancer, oral A malignant tumor of the mouth identified in prostate tissue obtained via biopsy. A sore in the mouth that does not heal can be some patients, prostate cancer is life threatening. A biopsy is the only many others, prostate cancer can exist for years way to determine whether an abnormal area in the without causing any health problems. Oral cancer is almost options for prostate cancer include observation, always caused by tobacco (smoking and chewing) radiation therapy, surgery, hormone therapy, and or alcohol use. Hereditary ovarian can- include heredity, colon polyps, and long-standing cer makes up a small percentage of all cases of ulcerative colitis. Removal of these polyps can identified: ovarian cancer alone, ovarian and breast prevent cancer. Ovarian cer can have no symptoms, so regular screening is cancer is difficult to detect early because there usu- important. Diagnosis can be made by barium enema ally are no symptoms and the symptoms that do or by colonoscopy, with biopsy confirmation of can- occur tend to be vague. There are many types of skin can- bladder habits, a sore that does not heal, unusual cer; the three most common types are basal cell bleeding or discharge, thickening or a lump in the carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, and the most breast or any other part of the body, indigestion or deadly, melanoma. The main cause of skin cancer is difficulty swallowing, obvious change in a wart or ultraviolet light from sunlight. Unexplained changes in the symptoms are not always signs of cancer; they can appearance of the skin that last longer than 2 weeks result from less serious conditions. Candida albicans A yeast-like fungal organism cancer, stomach See cancer, gastric. It is one of the most common didiasis of the intestinal tract or yeast infections of cancers in young men. The risk of testicular cancer is increased in males candidiasis Disease caused by the yeast Candida whose testicles did not move down normally into the albicans.

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Lines 2181-2187 (Evidence Report for Recommendation 6) Deleted discussion of results on ginger extract. Line 2208 (Evidence Report for Recommendation 6) Deleted the results evaluating gubitong (Figure 32). Lines 2218-2223 (Evidence Report for Recommendation 6) Deleted quality Tables 121-122. Lines 2263-2273 (Evidence Report for Recommendation 6) Deleted results Tables 144-149 of glycosamioglycan polysulfuric acid, ginger extract, and gubitong. Line 2755 (Rationale of Recommendation 9) Added a paragraph explaining differences between the current and previous guidelines.

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